It's (Definitely) Not October Yet, But We're Getting There

I'm sure it has been noted, and rightfully so, that I am in fact a Yankees fan writing for a blog entitled "Fans of Boston". But I can assure you, those readers that share their passion for the Yankees the same way I do, that my heart indeed lies in the Bronx. What once started as a bandwagon story (I won't get into that here) for me, some twelve years ago, emerged into an obsession that completely engulfs my lifestyle for eight months out of the year. Not a day goes by that I am not aware of who the Yanks are playing, who is pitching, the score of the game, and who is playing lousily. Naturally, I am also aware of the same ‘statistics’ of that hated team from Boston. Being that the Yankees/Red Sox rivalry is so common, especially in the Northeast, it would only seem appropriate if I were to share a common living space with a group of friends that lives and breathes Boston sports. Thus is the story of my life.

So now that you know a little bit about me and where I stand on this whole “Boston Sports” blog name, I will get into the topic that drew you to my post in the first place: the New York Yankees.

As of three days ago, the Yankees were on a hot streak that resembled, a little, that streak in June where they won 10 out of 12 before being swept by the Rockies in Colorado and then losing 2 out of 3 to the Giants. Granted, this streak had been a little bit longer, going 24-8 since the All-Star break. Going into this week’s series with the Orioles, the Yankees had the best record in baseball since the All-Star break and were leading the majors in every offensive category. They gained 5.5 games on the rival Red Sox in the AL East and pulled to within a few percentage points of the lead in the AL Wild Card.

Much of these outcomes can be credited to the resurgence of Yankee hitters Hideki Matsui, Robinson Cano, and Bobby Abreu. Sure, Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter have helped too, but the lack of offensive output from these three in particular contributed in large part to the hole the Yankees are still trying to climb out of. I will get into the pitching aspect later. Since the All-Star Break, Matsui, Cano, and Abreu have batted .353, .402, and .339 respectively. Matsui has raised his batting average .026 points and has added 12 home runs. Cano has raised his BA .036 points while adding seven home runs. Abreu has ‘only’ six home runs since the break but has 38 RBI’s and raised his average .017 points. These players have shown the most noticeable offensive resurgence but I can’t leave out the contributions from players such as Melky Cabrera, Jorge Posada, or the surprising Shelley Duncan.

I am an offensive guy and I like to see games where the Yankees score a lot of runs. But I hate to see the Yankee pitchers give up a lot and put a huge burden on the offense night in and night out. This has seemed to be the case throughout the season so far. The Yankees pitching staff ranks 7^th in the American League in ERA and dead last in strikeouts. While its offense has flourished since the break, the pitching staff’s ERA has actually increased to 4.49. It will be interesting to see if the rotation of Wang, Pettitte, Clemens, Mussina, and Hughes can carry this team into the postseason because we all know that it is pitching that wins in October.

Chien-Ming Wang has struggled as of late, giving up 16 earned runs in his last four starts. Pettitte has been surprisingly consistent (but not great) this year. Whenever he takes the mound you can almost be assured that he is going to go 6-8 innings giving up 2-5 earned runs. I wish they could get the same consistency out of Clemens, Mussina, and Hughes, although it is a little early to know what you’re going to get from Phil Hughes. In order for the Yankees to be successful the rest of the way, the starters need to go deep into games and have at least a 3.7 ERA.

Working into the 7^th innings takes a lot of pressure off of the bullpen which is in the middle of the pack in team ERA. Luis Vizcaino has been pitching reasonably well lately and the recent call-up of Joba Chamberlain will hopefully add a much-needed shut-down reliever. I look for him to be the set-up man for Mariano Rivera, who has struggled as of late (0-1, 13.52 ERA, blown save in his last 3 starts) . If Mo can return to form (despite his recent struggles), the Yankees could have a reasonable (and I did say reasonable) pair to counter Boston’s 1-2 punch of Hideki Okajima/Eric Gagne and Jonathan Papelbon.

Looking forward, I do not believe that the Yankees will be able to catch the Red Sox in the American League East. The Yankees still have to play 20 games against teams over .500 while the Red Sox only have to play 16. Although, with six head-to-head games still to be played, it could get interesting if the Yankees can keep it close. But my focus right now is on the American League Wild Card. Though I think it will be a tight race, I believe the Yankees will sneak into the postseason ahead of Seattle and Cleveland, barring another offensive slump.

Derek Jeter recently said, “We need contributions from everyone and we seem to be getting that.” Look for the pitching staff to continue to keep the Yankees close and let the offense carry them into the postseason.