The Sox Pitching Staff - Best in the AL (by far)

THE BOTTOM LINE: The Red Sox have the best pitching staff in the AL by far. Based on a formula I’ve developed, the Sox have a 75% chance of making the playoffs from the pitching side of the equation, highest in the AL.

The popular thought in baseball in recent years has been that offense can carry a team through the regular season, but that pitching wins in October. While the actual verity of this thought is debatable (Baseball Prospectus found that only a pitching staff’s strikeout rate, the closers’ wins added (WXRL), and the defense’s quality (FRAA or Fielding Runs added) correlate directly with postseason glory), having very good pitching certainly can hide many flaws that an otherwise good team might have.

Three stats that can summarize the quality of a team’s pitching are VORP, WXRL, and SNLVAR (all of which come from Baseball Prospectus). Allow me to explain in brief what each of these stats means. Bear with me; this will be useful in discussing the 2007 AL pennant race.

VORP (value over replacement player) measures the number of runs a team’s pitching staff (or pitchers individually) prevents beyond replacement level, or basically a staff made up of AAA pitchers. It measures the overall quality of the pitching staff. The higher the VORP, measured in runs, the better the staff. 10 runs is equal to a win, and a team with a combined offensive and defensive VORP of zero would win 48 games in a season. The highest team VORP in the Wild Card era (1995-present) was accumulated by the 1999 Boston Red Sox (361.4 VORP), who helped by one of the greatest pitching performances in baseball history turned in by Pedro Martinez (102.3 all by himself).

WXRL (expected wins added beyond replacement level) is a measure of how many wins a staff adds beyond that of a AAA staff as measured by change in win expectancy, adjusted for the quality of the opposing lineup. It’s a measure of the effectiveness of a team’s bullpen. Win expectancy is a concept that measures a team’s chances of winning a game based on a change in out, base runner situation, inning, and score. For example, based on 2006 play-by-play data, the home team batting in the bottom of the 8^th inning with runners on first and second with one out trailing by 1 run had a .43 (or 43%) chance of winning the game. If the opposing pitcher records an out, so now that the home team is batting in the bottom of the 8^th inning with runners on first and second with two outs trailing by 1 run, the team has only a .3 (30%) chance of winning the game. The pitcher who records the out is credited with the difference, .13 (.43-.3) between the probability of victory. He has effectively reduced the opposing team’s chance of winning the game by 13%. Outs recorded with large differences in the score or early in games have less value than those late in close games under this system. Over the course of the season, WXRL is added and subtracted until a total is reached; the higher the total is the better the team’s bullpen is. The highest total since 1995 was the 2003 LA Dodgers with 21.78, anchored by a historic season by Eric Gagne (9.23 WXRL).

SNLVAR (support neutral lineup adjusted value above replacement) measures the number of wins added by a starting pitcher above a AAA pitcher after making all pitchers have the same run support and face the same quality of opponent. It measures the quality of a team’s starting pitching staff. It places all pitchers on a level playing field, and is measured in wins. The highest SNLVAR since 1995 as a team was recorded by the 1997 Atlanta Braves (33.6), anchored by future Hall of Famers Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and John Smoltz.

Now that the explanation is all out of the way, if I haven’t lost you yet, we can look at the data since 1995. Since 1995, teams who rank in the top five in VORP, WXRL, or SNLVAR reach the playoffs 66% of the time. Teams ranking in the top three in the same categories reach the playoffs 74% of the time. A look at the data for the top 5 spots:

Season Rank	% VORP Top 5 Playoffs	% WXRL Top 5 Playoffs	% SNLVAR Top 5 Playoffs
1	83.33%	83.33%	91.67%
2	75%	75%	66.67%
3	66.67%	66.67%	58.33%
4	50%	33.33%	58.33%
5	66.67%	75%	50%
Total	68.33%	66.67%	65%

Being anywhere in the top 5 of any of these pitching categories gives a team a strong chance of making the playoffs.

How does this relate to the 2007 AL playoff race? We can make a formula that weighs a team’s pitching playoff chances by factoring in their rank in all three categories and the playoff chances in those categories. The data I’m using here is the same as above. The formula that I’m going to use is as follows:

[VORP Rank x Playoff Chance % + WXRL Rank x Playoff Chance % + SNLVAR Rank x Playoff Chance %]/3= Pitching Playoff Score

Note: There are certainly flaws in this system, such as a team ranking 20^th having a better chance of making the playoffs than a team ranking 17^th. This would probably be fixed using more years of data, but the general guiding principle is still worthwhile.

Ranking only the AL contenders, we get the following chart:

Team	Score	% Chance
BOS	224.99	74.99666667
MIN	133.33	44.44333333
ANA	124.99	41.66333333
SEA	83.33	27.77666667
CLE	74.99	24.99666667
DET	16.66	5.553333333
NYA	8.33	2.776666667

The list really isn’t all that surprising. Let’s analyze each staff, focusing on the starters, setup man, and closer to see how they look going forward towards October.

Boston - Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Curt Schilling, Tim Wakefield, Jon Lester, Hideki Okajima, Jonathan Papelbon

The Sox boast the league’s best pitching staff and are statistically second only to San Diego in all of baseball. The rotation is strong, especially the front end, where they have two young aces and one aging ace with a great playoff track record. Although Okajima has never pitched this much in his career, he’s unlikely to be burned out before October due to suitable replacements in Eric Gagne, Manny Delcarmen, Mike Timlin, and potentially Clay Buchholz. Papelbon has pitched far fewer innings this year than last and is healthy; he’s been lights out for most of the season.

Minnesota – Johan Santana, Boof Bonser, Carlos Silva, Scott Baker, Matt Garza, Pat Neshek/Matt Guerrier, Joe Nathan

Minnesota’s staff has been carried by Johan Santana and the back end of the bullpen, Nathan, Neshek, and Guerrier. Otherwise, they haven’t been spectacular individually, only as a unit. Not having Francisco Liraino really has hurt them this year. At 6.5 games behind, Liriano’s presence could have cut that deficit much lower, perhaps even to the point that they’d have been buyers and not sellers at the trading deadline.

Los Angeles of Anaheim – John Lackey, Kelvim Escobar, Jered Weaver, Joe Saunders, Ervin Santana, Scot Shields, Francisco Rodriguez

Lackey and Escobar have been two of the top pitchers in the league this season and offer no real reason to doubt them going forward. Weaver’s been inconsistent because of injuries, but overall has been an above average third starter. Ervin Santana, whom the Angels refused to trade in a deal for Miguel Tejada only a year ago, was so bad that he was demoted to AAA for a few starts. Saunders’ performance as a fifth starter has given the Angels no reason to worry, and Shields and K-Rod have been as good as ever. This would definitely be a scary pitching staff to face in October.

Seattle – Felix Hernandez, Jarrod Washburn, Miguel Batista, Jeff Weaver, Horatio Ramirez, George Sherrill, JJ Putz

Hernandez has shown the same flashes of greatness this season while also being inconsistent and injured. The starting staff, with the exception of Ramirez, has pitched well since the beginning of July. Sherrill has been scary to watch as a Red Sox fan, and Putz has been dominant.

Cleveland – CC Sabathia, Fausto Carmona, Paul Byrd, Jake Westbrook, Cliff Lee, Rafael Betancourt, Joe Borowski

Sabathia, Carmona, and Byrd make for a formidable front three, especially in a short playoff series. Lee has been awful this year, earning himself a demotion to the minors. While Betancourt has been outstanding (along with Rafael Perez), the rest of the bullpen is a clear weakness and could be a fatal flaw come October.

Detroit – Justin Verlander, Jeremy Bonderman, Nate Robertson, Kenny Rogers, Andrew Miller/Chad Durbin, Fernando Rodney/Joel Zumaya, Todd Jones

Although injury riddled, Detroit has been pretty bad in the pitching department since the All Star break. Their team ERA of 5.57 is second worst in all of baseball during that span. Obviously, this is a talented staff and should turn things around. If healthy, they’d be tough to beat in a short series, as the A’s and Yankees can attest.

New York – Chien-Ming Wang, Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte, Mike Mussina, Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, Mariano Rivera

Let’s get this out of the way: a Chamberlain and Rivera combo at the end of games is a scary thought for Red Sox fans everywhere. Also, most of this staff is playoff tested, so their experience is a positive for them. However, 3/5 of the rotation is older than 35, and Hughes, tremendously talented, has pitched only a handful of games. Their post-All Star break ERA: 4.56, 19^th in baseball. Let’s not kid ourselves: the Yankees could win with pitching if it gets hot, but are winning with offense. No team in recent memory has slugged their way to a championship.

Keep in mind that pitching is only part of the equation when evaluating a team. Plenty of teams with great pitching but poor offenses have failed to reach the postseason.

Next time, I’ll look into how the offenses rate and how the bats might determine who's playing in October and who's golfing.